2009 LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVES

2009 can be a year of unexpected political and economic imbalance for some countries in Latin America.  And, good news,  a year of continuous growht for other economies.  This distinction is based on a simple, but important fact.  A small group of countries are oil exporters, and the rest of our economies propelle its growth relying in other sources.    

oil_pump_5001

The first group of the above mentioned countries, will suffer the drastic drop of oil prices. And with oil prices down, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia will have major troubles in their current accounts.  And simultaneouslly will show high levels of government deficit.

With no budged to spend, this countries will face serious political pressures. Pressures that with high oil prices they can afford to stand.  Not anymore that easy.   We expect serious political turmoil for this countries, and a decline in its growht pace.

The Other Ones

Other countries in the region will, in contrast, show lower inflation rates. That allowed by the decline in oil and major import prices.   

With the support of well designed (and managed) government spending also, Colombia, Chile, and Peru will be good prospects to continue growing at high rates.

Take note that low inflation means also the possibility for an expanding monetary policy, wich carefully driven, can assure strong growth.

The engine for this emerging economies will continue being its exports.  Focused on commodities mainly, they will also attract foreign investment, with the developement of complimentary infrastucture mega-projects.

To consolidate  as Latin Americas rising economies, all what they need is stability. Politic stability,  in the midst of guerrilla and narcotraffic.  Two hard issues to deal with, for Colombia and Peru.

 

TECHNORATI

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